Thursday, July 20, 2006

Best GO/AO Ratios
As a stats man, I'm constantly using numbers to give myself a fantasy edge. One of my favorite stats is the GO/AO ratio, which is the ratio of Ground ball to fly ball (Air) outs a player is having. In short, the lower the ratio, the more the player is hitting the bar into the air, and therefore, more likely to hit home runs. When looking for hidden sources of power, I look for players with low GO/AO ratios who have not had corresponding high HR totals. That tells me a player has been getting unlucky, and that HRs will come in due process. Here are the lowest ratios worth mentioning:

Marcus Thames (.28)
His 19 HRs are not a fluke. By far the lowest ratio in the majors among regulars, Thames should keep hitting homes out with regularity.

Frank Thomas (.48)
His 20 HRs are also not a fluke. With more BBs than Ks, Thomas should avoid major slumps and keep on swinging. While his average (.248) probably will not rise much, he should be a reliable source of power for the rest of the season.

Joe Crede (.51)
Crede's had a breakout year, already near his career high in homers and batting 40 points higher than his career average. I don't see his BA staying so high, but the power should continue as he approaches 30 HRs on the season.

D. Navarro (.53)
C. Burke (.56)
A. Soriano (.58)